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Logo of Phnom Penh Post newspaper Phnom Penh Post - Will King Father Sihanouk stay on political sidelines?

Will King Father Sihanouk stay on political sidelines?

Return generates expectations in certain quarters and concern in others.

Former King Norodom Sihanouk, who has just completed a first phase of treatment for

cancer, is set to spend two months in his beloved Cambodia before more health tests

in China.

The former king has been away for six months, and despite his illness and no longer

being constitutional monarch, he has maintained a profound interest in political

developments.

That Sihanouk remains a factor in Cambodian politics cannot be ignored. It is therefore

no surprise that when news emerged of his planned return, it generated great expectations

in certain quarters and concern in others.

Pressure has been building in the past few weeks. There are expectations that Sihanouk,

in his sunset years and without his constitutional constraints, will become more

actively involved in addressing sensitive issues - especially border agreements signed

between Cambodia and Vietnam at the time that Vietnamese forces were in the country.

Sihanouk had never recognized these border agreements; this is well known. Thus,

his recent surprise appointment as chairman of the Supreme National Council on Border

Affairs raised hope among his supporters that the old pacts might be cast aside and

new ones negotiated.

This expectation is over-ambitious - the council is advisory in nature and does not

have the authority to negotiate treaties.

In any case, council decisions require a consensus of all seven members. This makes

it ineffectual, given that the council is as divided and entrenched in its views

on this subject as are other politicians.

Because of this, a faction that includes opposition party leader Sam Rainsy has been

agitating for the council to be granted enhanced powers to enable Sihanouk to lead

the charge on border issues.

But Prime Minister Hun Sen is too astute a politician and seasoned political fighter

not to have recognized the challenges being posed and the proxy battles being fought.

He has categorized the agitation to empower the council as a direct challenge to

his own authority as the elected head of government.

On June 19, he established a national committee on border issues.

Tellingly, the 20-member committee, headed by Mr Hun Sen, has been empowered to negotiate

border-related issues and sign agreements with neighbors - the very same power that

was sought for Sihanouk.

There are two requirements: The committee needs Cabinet approval before it acts and

has to report its activities to Sihanouk's council. The latter is basically a pro-forma.

This was a deft move, also meant to demonstrate that power rests with the elected

Cabinet and that its approval is required for negotiations with foreign countries.

These moves and countermoves reveal a great similarity between the former king and

the prime minister. One major reason for their survival in the highly dynamic world

of Cambodian politics is that they both understand power. They are master players,

and both are committed nationalists.

The day after the new committee was established, Sihanouk issued a statement saying

he would not involve himself in politics during his stay in Phnom Penh.

He now holds the key as to how his short stay will turn out, and he may well refuse

to be drawn.

However, two months on the sidelines of major events might seem an eternity for the

indefatigable former king.

The writer, a former Singapore ambassador to Cambodia, is a visiting fellow at the

Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

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