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Tensions and uncertainty set to nudge price of crude

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Analysis by Nhim Kosol, business manager at Golden FX Link Capital

Tensions and uncertainty set to nudge price of crude

Russia and Ukraine-triggered geopolitical tensions combined with Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline uncertainty continue to affect the price of oil, which has been moving sideways since early last week in the range of $72 to $73 per barrel.

The rise in geopolitical tensions with fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and Iranian nuclear talks appearing to deteriorate – increases the chances of a sudden price swing heading into year’s end.

The winter heating season in Europe is beginning just as supply shortages are pushing natural gas prices to record highs and electricity prices to new peaks.

Nord Stream 2’s start-up operations have also been complicated, with Germany threatening sanctions should Russia move against Ukraine just as a new chancellor is taking office.

Saudi Arabia finance minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan also reiterated warnings from the kingdom’s oil officials that a slowdown in fossil-fuel investment will lead to a spike in energy prices.

“We have very serious concerns that the world could run short of energy if we are not careful in managing the transition [to renewables]. In Saudi Arabia, we have an interest in maintaining demand.

“We are also worried that demand is increasing and there are no alternatives to fill that gap and we don’t want oil prices to go too high,” Bloomberg reported Mohammed Al-Jadaan as saying.

OPEC secretary-general Mohammad Barkindo said at the World Petroleum Congress last week that cutting investments in oil and gas production would be “misguided”.

Investing in new oil and gas supplies insufficiently would contribute to energy shortages, market imbalances and higher prices, Barkindo said, according to Oilprice.com.

Technical analysis indicates that the price of oil could find support on a low last Friday of $70.30, or a 50 per cent entrancement ($67.80) of the rally from the low of $62.40 to the high of $73.29.

Investors may wait to buy long on oil price, with support one at $70.30 and support two at $67.80 by placing a stop-loss function at $66 and the take-profit at $76.

Content image - Phnom Penh Post

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