Thailand's National Food Institute forecasts that the value of the country’s food exports this year will be $34.9 billion, up 5.4 per cent year-on-year, said its president Anong Paijitprapapon.

However, the value of exports will contract 0.3 per cent to 1.02 trillion baht if the baht rises to 29.30 per US dollar.

The export value is expected to expand 3.5 per cent to 1.06 trillion baht if the baht holds steady at 30.40 per dollar.

One positive factor helping food exports this year is the global economic recovery after tensions over the Sino-US trade war.

The negative factors that could affect the food industry are the drought and the possible hike in production and logistics costs if energy prices rise following an escalation in the US-Iran conflict.

Food exports last year dropped 3.8 per cent to $33.1 billion, or 1.025 trillion baht, while food imports amounted to 401.3 billion baht, down 0.1 per cent.

Among items suffering a decline in export value are rice, which fell 22 per cent, sugar 13.7 per cent, canned tuna six per cent, shrimps 9.2 per cent and pineapples 15.7 per cent.

The institute blames the drop in the value of food exports on the global economic situation, the strengthening baht and declining world food prices. The global food trade last year amounted to $1.3 trillion, down 0.6 per cent. Thailand’s food exports accounted for 2.51 per cent of the world food trade.

Last year, China was Thailand’s biggest food importer, replacing the CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Vietnam) bloc.

THE NATION (THAILAND)/ANN