Earth is still on course to warm more than 3 degrees Celsius by the century’s end despite a dip in greenhouse gas emissions caused by the pandemic and pledges to curb pollution, the UN said on December 9.
In its annual assessment of emissions levels, the UN’s Environment Programme (UNEP) found that this year’s seven per cent fall in carbon pollution would have “negligible impact” on warming without a broad and rapid shift away from fossil fuels.
The Emissions Gap report analyses the gulf between action required under the Paris climate deal and emissions cuts currently planned by countries.
It found that a “green recovery” from the pandemic, in which emerging net-zero pledges are accelerated, could shave 25 per cent off of emissions by 2030.
This would bring the world closer to levels required to limit warming to 2C as stipulated under Paris.
With just over 1C of warming since pre-industrial times, Earth is already experiencing stronger and more frequent droughts, wildfires and superstorms rendered deadlier by rising seas.
UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said: “Obviously the world has been in lockdown. During this time we saw a seven per cent decline in emissions.
“But we also know that the answer is not to lock up the world and have 1.9 billion children out of school.”
She said December 9’s report showed that a green pandemic recovery “can take a huge slice out of greenhouse gas emissions and help slow climate change”.
UNEP said last year that emissions must fall 7.6 per cent annually through 2030 to keep the more ambitious Paris temperature goal of 1.5C in play.
While this year is likely to see emissions fall broadly in line with that figure, it took an unprecedented slowdown in industry, travel and manufacturing to achieve.
Experts fear that a rebound in carbon emissions is nearly inevitable next year; last week the UN said that countries planned to increase fossil fuel production by two per cent each year this decade.
To limit warming to 1.5C, the report said oil, gas and coal production instead must fall six per cent each year.
December 9’s assessment found that emissions in 2019 – a year scientists still hope will represent a peak in annual carbon pollution – stood at 59.1 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent.
This represents a 2.6 per cent increase compared with 2018, largely driven by an increase in forest fires, UNEP said.
All told, Earth is still on course to warm more than 3C by 2100 – a temperature rise that would displace hundreds of millions of people because of rising seas, crop failures and increasingly extreme weather such as droughts and storms.
The report said reduced travel, industrial activity and electrical generation during the pandemic would see emissions fall seven per cent compared with last year.
But that would only translate to a 0.01C reduction of global warming by 2050.
UNEP said a green recovery from Covid-19 would see emissions hit 44 gigatonnes in 2030 compared with a predicted 59, giving humanity a 66 per cent chance of holding temperature rises under 2C.
This would require widespread shifts to renewable energy, direct support for zero-emission technology and infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, no new coal plants and widespread reforestation, it said.
The report also laid bare the vast inequality of carbon pollution – the wealthiest one per cent account for more than twice the combined emissions of the poorest 50 per cent.
UNEP said the group needed to slash its carbon footprint by a factor of 30 to stay in line with the Paris targets.