The ‘Forming Resistance Movements Abroad’ roundtable discussion was hosted by the Royal Academy of Cambodia on December 6. AKP
Political analysts argue that Cambodia's current domestic condition makes it unlikely that opposition movements based abroad will achieve success, noting that unless the situation in the Kingdom worsens significantly, they are unlikely to accomplish their goals.
Their observations were in response to numerous efforts by former opposition party members to launch resistance campaigns abroad, ever since the largest opposition party, the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved in 2017.
The Royal Academy of Cambodia hosted a December 6 “Forming Resistance Movements Abroad” roundtable discussion.
Although the discussion touched on the resistance and “colour revolutions” experienced in various countries, the event followed recent moves by former opposition leader Sam Rainsy and his allies to establish successive movements, including the latest “Spring Movement”, a term which may refer to the Arab Spring series of anti-government protests and uprisings which took place last decade.
Rainsy took to social media earlier today to explain his latest strategy.
“Every national resistance movement employs a strategy of blossoming. This strategy doesn’t rely on external force to seize locations, but focuses on creating an internal uprising from within,” he said.
“We must organise and strengthen covert forces, encouraging patriots who love justice and despise dictatorship, corruption, injustice, cronyism and acts of treason,” he added.
Kin Phea, president of the Royal Academy's International Relations Institute, noted at the discussion that the opposition's resistance movements began after the 2013 national elections and escalated following the dissolution of the CNRP in 2017.
“Generally, both in Cambodia and elsewhere, the roots of uprisings or revolutionary movements lie in societal injustices, coupled with external factors such as geopolitical competition among major powers,” he explained.
“Thus, to prevent escalation, governments must prioritise resolving any domestic issues that may fuel discontent,” he added.
Meas Nee, a social observer, echoed similar sentiments, stating that former opposition groups perceive such movements as necessary due to their own understanding of domestic conditions and reports of injustices.
“If the current political situation in Cambodia does not deteriorate further, these resistance movements will remain symbolic, used mainly to amplify messages abroad without gaining significant influence domestically,” he said.
“However, if the domestic situation worsens, it could strengthen these movements, it would be like handing a weapon to a rival, he warned.
Nee claimed that no government acknowledges the legitimacy of foreign resistance movements and that all nations view them as unlawful.
“What truly matters is the domestic social and economic situation. If internal issues are managed well and citizens are supportive, even 100 such movements abroad will fail to make an impact,” he said.
“As domestic stability strengthens, external efforts will gradually weaken due to lack of resources and public interest,” he added.
Sok Touch, president of the Royal Academy of Cambodia, highlighted how internal divisions caused the Kingdom to suffer historical losses, including territorial concessions to Vietnam and Thailand.
He urged Prime Minister Hun Manet to prevent the formation of any opposition revolutions which target Cambodia and suggested he appeal to the nations hosting these movements to halt their activities.
“Such movements do not contribute to Cambodia’s development but instead expose supporters to legal repercussions, including imprisonment,” said Touch, adding, “Think about it – how many people have been jailed for following what they shout from outside?”
His remarks referenced recent legal action against former opposition activists, some of whom have been jailed.
Vann Bunna, head of research and advocacy at the Cambodian Youth Network, observed that politicians continually seek ways to compete politically.
“In the case of the former CNRP, one method to remain politically active is by creating movements to preserve their voice or take a stance on certain issues,” he noted. He advocated for a political environment where all parties can compete fairly on equal footing.
