S ECOND Premier Hun Sen's historic visit to the former Khmer Rouge stronghold of Pailin
was more a demonstration of power than trust, say political observers.
His visit revealed the differences between the actors in this peculiarly Cambodian
peace process. It is increasingly apparent that at least one of the factions will
be forced to pliancy to guarantee the peace that their followers have been promised
and plainly want.
CPP leader Hun Sen, in a four-star RCAF uniform, went to Pailin as a soldier,
not as a statesman, and "to see the people." Hun Sen and Pailin supremo
Ee Chhean - each protected by 400 or more of their most trusted, heavily-armed troops
- traded speeches: Chhean demanding land rights for his people who have withstood
mines, malaria and resistance from government offensives; and Hun Sen "solemnly
assuring" this would be so.
Sen, analysts say, wanted to show he is Phnom Penh's powerbroker. He gave Chhean
and Malai leader Sok Pheap diplomatic passports, and promised to build schools and
roads in Pailin and Malai. CPP sources say Sen is prepared to let soldiers, police,
village and commune leaders all to keep their jobs and guns, and possibly give Chhean
and Pheap generalships within RCAF.
"A peaceful opportunity is now available, so go now and take care of your livelihood,
your crops," he told a crowd of some 3,500 crammed into Kaong Kang pagoda. They
On the Prime Minister's shoulder was reputedly Cambodia's richest man, Teng Boon
Ma, who sources say is channeling his support - as are most embassies and aid donors
- more and more toward Hun Sen. "You deal with the one who has power,"
said one diplomat in Phnom Penh.
Boon Ma's presence, and the reported rash of timber and gem contracts signed by CPP
officials with Thai and Pailin businesses, was a clear sign to Pailin that economic
power, as well as political and military clout, came to town on Hun Sen's Mi-26 helicopter
(a gift from Boon Ma).
Hun Sen's strategy is to use his own resources, and those of the international community,
to gain road access to the Pailin. Once there, analysts say, it would be difficult
for the former Khmer Rouge to resist an in-tegration based largely on Hun Sen's terms.
The floodgates have already inched open.
International aid agencies are privately saying that they are receiving pressure
to work in the area - and most of it seems to be geared toward ensuring safer access
to Pailin. "[US ambassador] Kenneth Quinn has said the US is interested in helping
us rebuild the road," said one CPP source. "And we have urged the Cambodian
Mines Action Center to go and demine there.
"We need to push communications and road-building... then we will have the possibility
of organizing the administration there," he said.
"[The president of the breakaway Democratic National Unity Movement (DNUM)]
Ieng Sary will try to take advantage of this time before the road is built,"
the source said.
CPP is also thinking that once the integration process starts, the Pailin populace
will effectively dictate its pace "and won't wait for Ieng Sary."
Pailin will not be "independent," CPP sources say.
However, CPP's idea of "integrating" the former Khmer Rouge with the government,
compared to the idea of a "union" as envisaged by Chhean, Pheap and Sary,
are oceans apart.
Sary, on Oct 26, four days after Sen had left Pailin, faxed to Phnom Penh an estimate
of DNUM's strength: 30,000 soldiers and 300,000 civilians. "These figures are
an exaggeration but in this way [DNUM] can ask for a union rather than integration,"
said a CPP source.
"Integration means they are entering into our governmental organization,"
he explained. "Union means that they want to do something else... which is impossible
under the Constitution.
"We want an integration like that led by Keo Pong...," he said.
But DNUM won't do that willingly.
"We do not accept the kind of defection like Keo Pong's," Sary's personal
secretary Long Norin told the Post.
Pong - who defected in March from Chhean's forces in Phnom Oral and who has since
spearheaded CPP's negotiations - "submitted" to the government, Pailin
maintains. The intimation is that Pong weakened DNUM's bargaining position, and had
been bought out to do so.
In Pailin, Pong is described as a "bastard" and more. The contempt of his
former comrades is undisguised.
However, his is the model of integration the CPP are holding up as a precedent. It
plainly won't wash with Pailin.
Undermining this situation further are the independent talks between DNUM and Funcinpec
- headed by General Nhek Bun Chhay and cemented by Prince Norodom Ranariddh's "secret"
trip to Pailin the previous week. Hun Sen only knew that Ranariddh was leaving when
the latter was already 15 minutes out of Phnom Penh in a helicopter, sources say.
DNUM, courted for now by both political factions in Phnom Penh, have an interest
in boosting their own numbers. As Chhean showed in early October when he took the
key southern town of Samlot, DNUM can see its sphere of influence extending from
Koh Kong to, eventually, Anlong Veng, observers say.
In addition, Ranariddh, according to CPP, has promised high positions within RCAF
to Chhean and Pheap should their troop numbers equal that of, specifically, Bun Chhay's.
"Impossible," said the CPP source, that Chhean and Pheap could have positions
as high as deputy chiefs of staff. "Ranariddh has 50 per cent of the power.
He should not go above that 50 per cent."
Analysts are now comparing three "kinds" of Khmer Rouge defections: Pong,
who went to the CPP; Bun Chhay's uncle, Prum Sue, who some say was given a long leash
by Pailin to test what Funcinpec can provide; and the Sary-Chhean-Pheap clique.
Sue has already written to the Khmer Institute of Democracy (KID) in Phnom Penh to
provide human rights training to 2,800 of Sue's civilian officials and soldiers.
KID director Dr. Lao Mong Hay said he was delighted with the unexpected requested,
and had approved it in principle.
"And Ieng Sary is a wily old fox," said one Phnom Penh diplomat. "He
was the one at the airfield ready to meet Hun Sen." The diplomat likened Sary
as the trainer or manager of Chhean the prize fighter. CPP also recognize Sary as
being politically important.
Sary's analysis must be deeper than his son Vuth's, who asked foreign military attachés
interviewing him: "You tell me, do we [join the government] fast, or slow?"
Chhean in his speech had no doubt: "A permanent peace... can only be achieved
minutely and cautiously," he said. If the task was done hurriedly, "clashes
will surely occur which may lead to the war again," he warned.
The two imponderables to the Cambodian peace equation are King Norodom Sihanouk,
who is reportedly still uneasy with his hands-off role, and whoever will take control
in Bangkok after next month's elections. General Chavalit Yong-chaiyudh, one of the
leading Thai Prime Ministerial contenders, has a long and chequered history with
Cambodia. Speculation is mounting as to how a Chavalit administration will treat
each Cambodian faction.
It will likely be Bangkok too that dictates the future of the KR hardliners now camped
in Anlong Veng. They're unlikely to long survive a Thai leader hostile, or at best
ambivalent, toward them.
One thing is for sure: Sek Ray won't have a say.
But the 58-year old Pailin resident, who lost a son and a husband in the war, spoke
the loudest when Hun Sen visited her town.
Near the stage, with her three daughters waiting for his arrival, she blurted out:
"There he is. I can see him," as Hun Sen neared.
Then she burst into tears. She wrapped her krama around her face, and mumbled just
one word through heaving sobs: "Happy."