Global oil supplies could fall far short of need and expectations in the next 20 years, the International Energy Agency is concluding based on a vast effort of detective work on production prospects. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal published May 22, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol argued that investment is lagging behind expected growth of demand. Consuming countries had to take "emergency action" to increase energy efficiency and develop alternative energies, he said. For several years the IEA had calculated that supplies would increase to exceed 116 million barrels per day by 2030, from about 87 million barrels per day now. But it now estimates that "companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels per day over the next two decades." This, Birol said, "is a dangerous situation."